Federal workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are on high alert as they monitor signs of a potential Trump administration overhaul of one of the government's main scientific agencies.
Many employees are bracing for potential staff cuts, as well as slashes to the funding that supports science within the agency and by many research partners across the country.
In particular, NOAA staffers are concerned about how President Trump's executive orders, including one targeting climate change programs, could affect the agency's research and operations. Agency officials have received a list, which NPR has viewed, of terms that could run afoul of the orders in the grants and programs they manage; the list includes terms like "climate change," "pollution" and "natural resources," as well as many terms associated with diversity, equity and inclusion. NPR obtained the list from an official at NOAA who agreed to talk on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
NOAA did not respond to NPR's request for comment.
What NOAA does — and how that might change under the Trump administration
NOAA includes offices that study the ocean and atmosphere, forecast the weather at the National Weather Service and manage the country's oceanic fisheries.
"If you are a recreational boater, you use NOAA charts. If you like fish, you're eating fish that NOAA manages. If you are concerned about severe weather events, that information — whether it be flooding, tornadoes or tsunamis or hurricanes — that information is tracked by, analyzed by and put into forecasts by NOAA," says Andy Rosenberg, a former NOAA official.
The "Project 2025" plan, a 900-plus page blueprint for governing produced by conservative groups led by the Heritage Foundation, called NOAA "one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry." It suggested breaking the agency up, slashing its budget and privatizing much of its weather forecasting work.
Trump – who often distanced himself from the Project 2025 plan during the campaign — has placed some of the project's authors into prominent staff roles in his administration and issued a bevy of executive actions that closely mirror its recommendations.
Previous administrations have discussed moving NOAA from its current home in the Department of Commerce to another part of government, or breaking apart its different arms: for example, officials have previously explored the idea of moving the National Marine Fisheries Service, a branch of NOAA, to the Fish and Wildlife Service. And Trump showed interest during his first administration in privatizing weather forecasting and technology.
"The mood's lower than I've ever seen it"
NPR spoke with several NOAA employees who requested anonymity for fear of retaliation at work. They said they are concerned that the Trump administration will impede the agency's scientific work as part of the push to cut government costs by Elon Musk's team within the Trump administration known as the Department of Government Efficiency. Some staffers are watching to see if NOAA continues to issue, for example, its closely watched reports on weather and climate, which often influence economic activity across the globe.
"The mood's lower than I've ever seen it," a NOAA contractor tells NPR. "There's a lot of fear in the office."
Career civil servants at NOAA are also awaiting the likely return of Neil Jacobs, an atmospheric scientist who served as NOAA's acting head during the first Trump administration. Trump has nominated Jacobs to be the agency's next leader.
Jacobs is a weather modeler respected by many peers and is currently a fellow at the American Meteorological Society, a prestigious professional association of meteorologists. But he was also cited for misconduct by an independent expert panel of the National Academy of Public Administration after following the "Sharpiegate" incident in 2019. In the incident, Trump incorrectly stated Hurricane Dorian would affect Alabama, a state outside its forecasted track. NOAA, under Jacobs' leadership, later released an unsigned statement backing up Trump's incorrect claims.
Another new nominee to a key NOAA leadership position, Taylor Jordan, is also well-versed in weather forecasting and technology, says Craig McLean, a former NOAA official who served across several previous administrations. The nomination is slightly unusual, says McLean, because historically, the two leadership positions to which Jordan and Jacobs have been nominated would be held by a weather expert and an expert on coasts or fisheries.
A new commerce secretary could influence NOAA's future
Potential new leadership at NOAA's parent agency, the Commerce Department, is also raising questions about NOAA's future. Democratic lawmakers on the Senate Commerce Committee have been pressing Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, on his plans for the agency in light of Project 2025's call for the end of NOAA.
Advocates of NOAA have raised the alarm about how shutting off public NOAA data that informs daily weather forecasts, wildfire alerts and hurricane tracking could have dire consequences on people's lives and the country's economy.
"In a world where catastrophic climate change impacts and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, I can think of nothing worse than turning this scientific powerhouse into a skeletal operation," Juan Declet-Barreto, senior social scientist for climate vulnerability at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in a statement. "If President Trump moves forward with demolishing NOAA, he will jeopardize most people's access to life-saving information, while only the rich might be able to afford private data sources."
Asked by Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington, the committee's top Democrat, whether NOAA should be dismantled, Lutnick said in a written response that "it is premature to discuss any specific recommendations before engaging with NOAA and the Office of Management and Budget," as well as the Commerce Department and Trump.
All Republican lawmakers on the committee, plus Democratic Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, voted to advance Lutnick's nomination last week largely along party lines.
NPR climate reporter Julia Simon contributed reporting.
Edited by Sadie Babits, Neela Banerjee and Benjamin Swasey
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